The penetration of variable generation resources onto the electric grid has created a growing need for accurate, reliable forecasts of wind and solar generation on timescales ranging from a few minutes to several weeks in advance. Through its partnership with AWS Truepower, MESO provides renewable energy forecasting services across North America for system operators, electric utilities, and owners/operators of wind and solar generation facilities.
MESO uses a variety of innovative techniques to meet the many needs for wind and solar generation forecasts. MESO combines the scope of global numerical weather prediction (NWP) models run at government facilities such as the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) and Environment Canada, with the flexibility of customized local and regional high-resolution NWP models run at its forecast operations center.
MESO uses NWP model data, observations, and production data from wind or solar generation facilities as inputs into several statistical models that adjust the forecasts for specific locations The final step is to transfer forecast information into an optimization algorithm, that weights each method based on its historical performance to provide the most accurate forecast.