Verification statistics for yesterday's MESO MM5 runs are shown
below. The statistics shown are Mean Absolute Error (MAE) and
bias for surface temperature, dewpoint, mixing ratio, surface pressure,
wind speed, wind direction, and wind vector difference.
The model
variables are interpolated to the surface station locations for
the comparisons. Corrections are made to the model temperature and pressure
to try to account for differences between model elevation and station elevation.
Similarity theory is used to calculate the MM5 surface temperature
and wind speeds.
The statistics are computed for every available observation within
the domain, excluding a boundary region of 2 dx. An observation is
thrown out only if it flunks a very gross limits check (235C < T < 340C;
wind speed > 50 m/s; mixing ratio > 25 g/kg; 200C < TD < 340C; 1050 mb < P < 500 mb).
MAE is defined as sum(abs(ob-model))/nobs. Bias is defined as
sum(model-ob)/nobs. A positive bias thus means the model is too warm/high/moist/fast.
ETA CRNT is the 0000 UTC ETA run - same initialization time as the MM5 runs.
ETA PREV is the previous 1200 UTC ETA run, verified at its 12-48 hr forecast
times. The 1200 UTC ETA run is that used as the first-guess for the MM5 initial
analysis and for the lateral boundary conditions.
The verification software is new and evolving - there may still
be errors in it! I would like to add upper air verification against
raobs and precipitation verification at some point.
T, TD, MR, P MAEs for yesterday's MESO MM5 forecasts
Dir, Sp, Vec MAEs for yesterday's MESO MM5 forecasts
T, TD, MR, P Biases for yesterday's MESO MM5 forecasts
Dir, Sp, Vec Biases for yesterday's MESO MM5 forecasts
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