MESO, Inc. MM5 Real Time Forecast

Quickly go to: Coarse Grid Forecast
Coarse Grid Animations
Coarse Grid Soundings
Nested Grid Forecast
Nested Grid Animations
Nested Grid Soundings
Vertical Cross-Sections

Grid configuration: The coarse domain has 71 x 58 points horizontally with a 30 km grid spacing. The nested domain has 76 x 70 points horizontally, with a 15 km grid spacing. Both domains have 25 layers in the vertical, with the model top at 75 mb. Both domains are run for 24 hours. The nested domain land surface characteristics (terrain, land/water, sea surface temperature, land use, soil moisture, snow cover) are all interpolated directly to the nested grid scale; as a result the nested grid has features consistent with that scale and is not just an interpolation from the coarse grid information. The coarse grid timestep is 90 secs, and the fine grid timestep is 30 secs.

Grid 1 configuration
Grid 2 configuration

Model configuration: NCAR's MM5v2 version 2.9
Simple ice microphysics (coarse and fine grids)
Grell cumulus parameterization (coarse and fine grids)
MRF PBL (coarse and fine grids)
Cloud-scheme radiation (coarse and fine grids)
Radiative top boundary condition (coarse and fine grids)
2-way interactive nesting

Initialization: The model is initialized at 1200 UTC. The 00 hr forecast from the 12 UTC Early Eta run is used as the first-guess. If that is not available by a set time, then the 12 hour forecast from the previous 0000 UTC Early Eta run (Eta 211 grid, grid has 80 km data resolution, actual model run has 32 km resolution) is used as the first-guess. If the Eta run is unavailable, the previous 00Z AVN run is used as the first-guess. The 1200 UTC rawinsonde and surface METAR observations are used to enhance the first-guess using NCAR's MM5 RAWINS package with the multi-quadratic analysis scheme. The Eta (or AVN) forecast fields at 06, 12, 18, and 24 hrs are used for the lateral boundary conditions. The fine grid surface characteristic fields (terrain, land/water, vegetation, SST) are interpolated to the fine grid directly from the original data. The fine grid initial fields are interpolated directly to the fine grid (not from the coarse grid).

Soil moisture and snow cover: The soil moisture availability is updated during the model run, using the modifications provided by Jim Bresch at NCAR/MMM. The soil moisture availability (SMA) is initialized for each run using the Eta 12 hr fcst SMA from the previous Eta run (the previous 12Z run). The snow cover (just yes/no, not snow depth) is updated during the model run using the IFSNOW option in the model. The snow cover is initialized from the most recently available NESDIS IMS snow cover analysis.

Current MESO MM5 runs are initialized at: 03-May-1999 12 UTC
NCEP model used for first-guess is ETA from 99050312




MESO MM5 RT Run: Coarse Grid, Initial time= 03-May-1999 12 UTC

Field 00 hour
7 am
EST
990503
03 hour
10 am
EST
990503
06 hour
1 pm
EST
990503
09 hour
4 pm
EST
990503
12 hour
7 pm
EST
990503
15 hour
10 pm
EST
990503
18 hour
1 am
EST
990504
21 hour
4 am
EST
990504
24 hour
7 am
EST
990504
Field
Snow cover 1200Z 1500Z 1800Z 2100Z 0000Z 0300Z 0600Z 0900Z 1200Z Snow cover
Soil Moisture 1200Z 1500Z 1800Z 2100Z 0000Z 0300Z 0600Z 0900Z 1200Z Soil Moisture
MSLP/500 Thk 1200Z 1500Z 1800Z 2100Z 0000Z 0300Z 0600Z 0900Z 1200Z MSLP/500 Thk
SFC T/Winds 1200Z 1500Z 1800Z 2100Z 0000Z 0300Z 0600Z 0900Z 1200Z SFC T/Winds
SFC ThetaE 1200Z 1500Z 1800Z 2100Z 0000Z 0300Z 0600Z 0900Z 1200Z SFC ThetaE
SFC Mx Ratio 1200Z 1500Z 1800Z 2100Z 0000Z 0300Z 0600Z 0900Z 1200Z SFC Mx Ratio
CAPE 1200Z 1500Z 1800Z 2100Z 0000Z 0300Z 0600Z 0900Z 1200Z CAPE
CIN 1200Z 1500Z 1800Z 2100Z 0000Z 0300Z 0600Z 0900Z 1200Z CIN
LI 1200Z 1500Z 1800Z 2100Z 0000Z 0300Z 0600Z 0900Z 1200Z LI
Tornado Index 1200Z 1500Z 1800Z 2100Z 0000Z 0300Z 0600Z 0900Z 1200Z Tornado Index
Cloud base HT 1200Z 1500Z 1800Z 2100Z 0000Z 0300Z 0600Z 0900Z 1200Z Cloud base HT
Vis Sat View 1200Z 1500Z 1800Z 2100Z 0000Z 0300Z 0600Z 0900Z 1200Z Vis Sat View
500 Thk/3-h Prc 1200Z 1500Z 1800Z 2100Z 0000Z 0300Z 0600Z 0900Z 1200Z 500 Thk/6-h Prc
850 HT/Wind 1200Z 1500Z 1800Z 2100Z 0000Z 0300Z 0600Z 0900Z 1200Z 850 HT/Wind
850 T/Mx Ratio 1200Z 1500Z 1800Z 2100Z 0000Z 0300Z 0600Z 0900Z 1200Z 850 T/Mx Ratio
850 RH/W 1200Z 1500Z 1800Z 2100Z 0000Z 0300Z 0600Z 0900Z 1200Z 850 RH/W
700 RH/W 1200Z 1500Z 1800Z 2100Z 0000Z 0300Z 0600Z 0900Z 1200Z 700 RH/W
500 HT/Vort 1200Z 1500Z 1800Z 2100Z 0000Z 0300Z 0600Z 0900Z 1200Z 500 HT/Vort
500 Winds 1200Z 1500Z 1800Z 2100Z 0000Z 0300Z 0600Z 0900Z 1200Z
300 HT/Vort 1200Z 1500Z 1800Z 2100Z 0000Z 0300Z 0600Z 0900Z 1200Z 300 HT/Vort
300 Winds 1200Z 1500Z 1800Z 2100Z 0000Z 0300Z 0600Z 0900Z 1200Z 300 Winds
3 hr Precip 1200Z 1500Z 1800Z 2100Z 0000Z 0300Z 0600Z 0900Z 1200Z 3 hr Precip
Precip TOTAL 1200Z 1500Z 1800Z 2100Z 0000Z 0300Z 0600Z 0900Z 1200Z Precip TOTAL
NON/CON Precip 1200Z 1500Z 1800Z 2100Z 0000Z 0300Z 0600Z 0900Z 1200Z NON/CON Precip

MESO MM5 RT Grid 1 Soundings, Initial time= 03-May-1999 12 UTC

Location 00 hour
7 am
EST
990503
03 hour
10 am
EST
990503
06 hour
1 pm
EST
990503
09 hour
4 pm
EST
990503
12 hour
7 pm
EST
990503
15 hour
10 pm
EST
990503
18 hour
1 am
EST
990504
21 hour
4 am
EST
990504
24 hour
7 am
EST
990504
Location
Tulsa, OK 1200Z 1500Z 1800Z 2100Z 0000Z 0300Z 0600Z 0900Z 1200Z Tulsa, OK
Oklahoma City 1200Z 1500Z 1800Z 2100Z 0000Z 0300Z 0600Z 0900Z 1200Z Oklahoma City
Dodge City, KS 1200Z 1500Z 1800Z 2100Z 0000Z 0300Z 0600Z 0900Z 1200Z Dodge City, KS

Grid 1 Animations: Click on the link to load the animation. It will keep looping until you click on your browser's "stop".

Animation of Grid 1 MSLP
Animation of Grid 1 Sfc Temperature and Winds
Animation of Grid 1 Theta-e
Animation of Grid 1 Vis Sat View
Animation of Grid 1 3-hrly Precip
Animation of Grid 1 Total Precip
3-D Animation of Grid 1 Clouds
3-D Animation of Grid 1 Clouds and Sfc T
3-D Rotating Animation of Grid 1 Clouds


Grid 1 Vertical Cross-Sections




MESO MM5 RT Run: Nested Grid, Init Time= 03-May-1999 12 UTC

Field 00 hour
7 am
EST
990503
03 hour
10 am
EST
990503
06 hour
1 pm
EST
990503
09 hour
4 pm
EST
990503
12 hour
7 pm
EST
990503
15 hour
10 pm
EST
990503
18 hour
1 am
EST
990504
21 hour
4 am
EST
990504
24 hour
7 am
EST
990504
Field
Snow Cover 1200Z 1500Z 1800Z 2100Z 0000Z 0300Z 0600Z 0900Z 1200Z Snow Cover
Soil Moisture 1200Z 1500Z 1800Z 2100Z 0000Z 0300Z 0600Z 0900Z 1200Z Soil Moisture
MSLP/500 Thk 1200Z 1500Z 1800Z 2100Z 0000Z 0300Z 0600Z 0900Z 1200Z MSLP/500 Thk
SFC T/Winds 1200Z 1500Z 1800Z 2100Z 0000Z 0300Z 0600Z 0900Z 1200Z SFC T/Winds
SFC ThetaE 1200Z 1500Z 1800Z 2100Z 0000Z 0300Z 0600Z 0900Z 1200Z SFC ThetaE
SFC Mx Ratio 1200Z 1500Z 1800Z 2100Z 0000Z 0300Z 0600Z 0900Z 1200Z SFC Mx Ratio
CAPE 1200Z 1500Z 1800Z 2100Z 0000Z 0300Z 0600Z 0900Z 1200Z CAPE
CIN 1200Z 1500Z 1800Z 2100Z 0000Z 0300Z 0600Z 0900Z 1200Z CIN
LI 1200Z 1500Z 1800Z 2100Z 0000Z 0300Z 0600Z 0900Z 1200Z LI
Tornado Index 1200Z 1500Z 1800Z 2100Z 0000Z 0300Z 0600Z 0900Z 1200Z Tornado Index
Cloud base HT 1200Z 1500Z 1800Z 2100Z 0000Z 0300Z 0600Z 0900Z 1200Z Cloud base HT
Vis Sat View 1200Z 1500Z 1800Z 2100Z 0000Z 0300Z 0600Z 0900Z 1200Z Vis Sat View
850 Th/850 V 1200Z 1500Z 1800Z 2100Z 0000Z 0300Z 0600Z 0900Z 1200Z 850 Th/850 V
925 Cnv/Winds 1200Z 1500Z 1800Z 2100Z 0000Z 0300Z 0600Z 0900Z 1200Z 925 Cnv/Winds
850 HT/Winds 1200Z 1500Z 1800Z 2100Z 0000Z 0300Z 0600Z 0900Z 1200Z 850 HT/Winds
850 T/Mx Ratio 1200Z 1500Z 1800Z 2100Z 0000Z 0300Z 0600Z 0900Z 1200Z 850 T/Mx Ratio
850 RH/W 1200Z 1500Z 1800Z 2100Z 0000Z 0300Z 0600Z 0900Z 1200Z 850 RH/W
700 RH/W 1200Z 1500Z 1800Z 2100Z 0000Z 0300Z 0600Z 0900Z 1200Z 700 RH/W
500 HT/Vort 1200Z 1500Z 1800Z 2100Z 0000Z 0300Z 0600Z 0900Z 1200Z 500 HT/Vort
500 Winds 1200Z 1500Z 1800Z 2100Z 0000Z 0300Z 0600Z 0900Z 1200Z 500 Winds
300 HT/Vort 1200Z 1500Z 1800Z 2100Z 0000Z 0300Z 0600Z 0900Z 1200Z 300 HT/Vort
300 Winds 1200Z 1500Z 1800Z 2100Z 0000Z 0300Z 0600Z 0900Z 1200Z 300 Winds
3 hr Precip 1200Z 1500Z 1800Z 2100Z 0000Z 0300Z 0600Z 0900Z 1200Z 3 hr Precip
Precip TOTAL 1200Z 1500Z 1800Z 2100Z 0000Z 0300Z 0600Z 0900Z 1200Z Precip TOTAL
NON/CON Precip 1200Z 1500Z 1800Z 2100Z 0000Z 0300Z 0600Z 0900Z 1200Z NON/CON Precip

MESO MM5 RT Run: Nested Grid Soundings, Init Time= 03-May-1999 12 UTC

Location 00 hour
7 am
EST
990503
03 hour
10 am
EST
990503
06 hour
1 pm
EST
990503
09 hour
4 pm
EST
990503
12 hour
7 pm
EST
990503
15 hour
10 pm
EST
990503
18 hour
1 am
EST
990504
21 hour
4 am
EST
990504
24 hour
7 am
EST
990504
Location
Tulsa, OK 1200Z 1500Z 1800Z 2100Z 0000Z 0300Z 0600Z 0900Z 1200Z Tulsa, OK
Oklahoma City, OK 1200Z 1500Z 1800Z 2100Z 0000Z 0300Z 0600Z 0900Z 1200Z Oklahoma City, OK
Dodge City, KS 1200Z 1500Z 1800Z 2100Z 0000Z 0300Z 0600Z 0900Z 1200Z Dodge City, KS

Grid 2 Animations: Click on the link to load the animation. It will keep looping until you click on your browser's "stop".

Animation of Grid 2 MSLP
Animation of Grid 2 Sfc Temperature and Winds
Animation of Grid 2 Theta-e
Animation of Grid 2 Vis Sat View
Animation of Grid 2 3-hrly Precip
Animation of Grid 2 Total Precip
Animation of Grid 2 Mixing Ratio
Animation of Grid 2 Tornado Index
Animation of Grid 2 Lifted Index
Animation of Grid 2 OKC Sounding
Animation of Grid 2 Vert X section 1
3-D Animation of Grid 2 Clouds
3-D Animation of Grid 2 Clouds and Sfc T
3-D Rotating Animation of Grid 2 Clouds


Grid 2 Vertical Cross-Sections