MESO, Inc. MM5 Real Time Syracuse Derecho Forecast

Quickly go to: Coarse Grid Forecast
Nested Grid Forecast
Verification
Point Site Forecasts
Vertical Cross-Sections

Grid configuration: The coarse domain has 93 x 78 points horizontally with a 30 km grid spacing. The nested domain has 76 x 61 points horizontally, with a 10 km grid spacing. Both domains have 25 layers in the vertical, with the model top at 75 mb. Both domains are run for 24 hours. The nested domain land surface characteristics (terrain, land/water, sea surface temperature, land use, soil moisture, snow cover) are all interpolated directly to the nested grid scale; as a result the nested grid has features consistent with that scale and is not just an interpolation from the coarse grid information.

Grid configuration
Gridded topography
Gridded land-use
Gridded sea surface temperatures (SST and Great Lakes temperatures are updated weekly in model runs from NCEP analyses. Graph shown may not be latest.)


Grid 1 topography
Grid 1 land use
Grid 1 land/water distribution
Grid 2 topography
Grid 2 land use
Grid 2 land/water distribution

Model configuration: NCAR's MM5v2 version 2.9
Simple ice microphysics (coarse and fine grids)
Kain-Fritsch cumulus parameterization (coarse and fine grids)
MRF PBL (coarse and fine grids)
Cloud-scheme radiation (coarse and fine grids)
Radiative top boundary condition (coarse and fine grids)
2-way interactive nesting

Initialization: The model is initialized at 1200 UTC. The 00 hr forecast from the 12 UTC Early Eta run is used as the first-guess (Eta 211 grid, grid has 80 km data resolution, actual model run has 32 km resolution). The 1200 UTC rawinsonde and surface METAR observations are used to enhance the first-guess using NCAR's MM5 RAWINS package with the multi-quadratic analysis scheme. The Eta (or AVN) forecast fields at 6, 12, 18, 24 hrs are used for the lateral boundary conditions. The fine grid surface characteristic fields (terrain, land/water, vegetation, SST) are interpolated to the fine grid directly from the original data. The fine grid initial fields are interpolated directly to the fine grid (not from the coarse grid).

Soil moisture and snow cover: The soil moisture availability is updated during the model run, using the modifications provided by Jim Bresch at NCAR/MMM. The soil moisture availability (SMA) is initialized for each run using the Eta 12 hr fcst SMA from the previous Eta run (the previous 12Z run). The snow cover (just yes/no, not snow depth) is updated during the model run using the IFSNOW option in the model. The snow cover is initialized from the most recently available NESDIS IMS snow cover analysis.

Current MESO MM5 runs are initialized at: 06 Sep 1998 12 UTC
NCEP model used for first-guess is ETA from 1200


Tabular site forecasts (Now with point-and-click map, many more locations)
Vertical Cross-Sections

MESO MM5 RT Run: Coarse Grid, Initial time= 06 Sep 1998 12 UTC

Field 00 hour
7 am
EST
980906
03 hour
10 am
EST
980906
06 hour
1 pm
EST
980906
09 hour
4 pm
EST
980906
12 hour
7 pm
EST
980906
15 hour
10 pm
EST
980906
18 hour
1 am
EST
980907
21 hour
4 am
EST
980907
24 hour
7 am
EST
980907
4-panelField
Snow cover 1200Z 1500Z 1800Z 2100Z 0000Z 0300Z 0600Z 0900Z 1200Z 00-24 Snow cover
Soil Moisture 1200Z 1500Z 1800Z 2100Z 0000Z 0300Z 0600Z 0900Z 1200Z 00-24 Soil Moisture
MSLP/500 Thk 1200Z 1500Z 1800Z 2100Z 0000Z 0300Z 0600Z 0900Z 1200Z 00-24 MSLP/500 Thk
SFC T/Winds 1200Z 1500Z 1800Z 2100Z 0000Z 0300Z 0600Z 0900Z 1200Z 00-24 SFC T/Winds
SFC ThetaE 1200Z 1500Z 1800Z 2100Z 0000Z 0300Z 0600Z 0900Z 1200Z 00-24 SFC ThetaE
SFC Mx Ratio 1200Z 1500Z 1800Z 2100Z 0000Z 0300Z 0600Z 0900Z 1200Z 00-24 SFC Mx Ratio
CAPE 1200Z 1500Z 1800Z 2100Z 0000Z 0300Z 0600Z 0900Z 1200Z 00-24 CAPE
CIN 1200Z 1500Z 1800Z 2100Z 0000Z 0300Z 0600Z 0900Z 1200Z 00-24 CIN
LI 1200Z 1500Z 1800Z 2100Z 0000Z 0300Z 0600Z 0900Z 1200Z 00-24 LI
Tornado Index 1200Z 1500Z 1800Z 2100Z 0000Z 0300Z 0600Z 0900Z 1200Z 00-24 Tornado Index
Cloud base HT 1200Z 1500Z 1800Z 2100Z 0000Z 0300Z 0600Z 0900Z 1200Z 00-24 Cloud base HT
Vis Sat View 1200Z 1500Z 1800Z 2100Z 0000Z 0300Z 0600Z 0900Z 1200Z 00-24 Vis Sat View
500 Thk/3-h Prc 1200Z 1500Z 1800Z 2100Z 0000Z 0300Z 0600Z 0900Z 1200Z 00-24 500 Thk/3-h Prc
850 HT/Wind 1200Z 1500Z 1800Z 2100Z 0000Z 0300Z 0600Z 0900Z 1200Z 00-24 850 HT/Wind
850 T/Mx Ratio 1200Z 1500Z 1800Z 2100Z 0000Z 0300Z 0600Z 0900Z 1200Z 00-24 850 T/Mx Ratio
850 RH/W 1200Z 1500Z 1800Z 2100Z 0000Z 0300Z 0600Z 0900Z 1200Z 00-24 850 RH/W
700 RH/W 1200Z 1500Z 1800Z 2100Z 0000Z 0300Z 0600Z 0900Z 1200Z 00-24 700 RH/W
500 HT/Vort 1200Z 1500Z 1800Z 2100Z 0000Z 0300Z 0600Z 0900Z 1200Z 00-24 500 HT/Vort
500 Winds 1200Z 1500Z 1800Z 2100Z 0000Z 0300Z 0600Z 0900Z 1200Z 00-24 500 Winds
300 HT/Vort 1200Z 1500Z 1800Z 2100Z 0000Z 0300Z 0600Z 0900Z 1200Z 00-24 300 HT/Vort
300 Winds 1200Z 1500Z 1800Z 2100Z 0000Z 0300Z 0600Z 0900Z 1200Z 00-24 300 Winds
3 hr Precip 1200Z 1500Z 1800Z 2100Z 0000Z 0300Z 0600Z 0900Z 1200Z 00-24 3 hr Precip
Precip TOTAL 1200Z 1500Z 1800Z 2100Z 0000Z 0300Z 0600Z 0900Z 1200Z 00-24 Precip TOTAL
NON/CON Precip 1200Z 1500Z 1800Z 2100Z 0000Z 0300Z 0600Z 0900Z 1200Z 00-24 NON/CON Precip

MESO MM5 RT Grid 1 Soundings, Initial time= 06 Sep 1998 12 UTC

Location 00 hour
7 am
EST
980906
03 hour
10 am
EST
980906
06 hour
1 pm
EST
980906
09 hour
4 pm
EST
980906
12 hour
7 pm
EST
980906
15 hour
10 pm
EST
980906
18 hour
1 am
EST
980907
21 hour
4 am
EST
980907
24 hour
7 am
EST
980907
4 panelLocation
Tulsa, OK 1200Z 1500Z 1800Z 2100Z 0000Z 0300Z 0600Z 0900Z 1200Z 00-24 Tulsa, OK
Springfield, MO 1200Z 1500Z 1800Z 2100Z 0000Z 0300Z 0600Z 0900Z 1200Z 00-24 Springfield, MO
Columbia, MO 1200Z 1500Z 1800Z 2100Z 0000Z 0300Z 0600Z 0900Z 1200Z 00-24 Columbia, MO

Grid 1 Animations: Click on the link to load the animation. Then click on your browser's "reload" button to loop.

Animation of Grid 1 MSLP
Animation of Grid 1 Sfc Temperature and Winds
Animation of Grid 1 Theta-e
Animation of Grid 1 Vis Sat View
Animation of Grid 1 3-hrly Precip
Animation of Grid 1 Total Precip
Animation of Grid 1 500 mb Winds
Animation of Grid 1 300 mb Winds
3-D Animation of Grid 1 Clouds
3-D Animation of Clouds and Sfc T
Fly-by of 3-D Cloud Animation!

Grid 1 Vertical Cross-Sections
Grid 1 Tabular Site Forecasts

MESO MM5 RT Run: Nested Grid, Init Time= 06 Sep 1998 12 UTC

Field 00 hour
7 am
EST
980906
03 hour
10 am
EST
980906
06 hour
1 pm
EST
980906
09 hour
4 pm
EST
980906
12 hour
7 pm
EST
980906
15 hour
10 pm
EST
980906
18 hour
1 am
EST
980907
21 hour
4 am
EST
980907
24 hour
7 am
EST
980907
4-panelField
Snow Cover 1200Z 1500Z 1800Z 2100Z 0000Z 0300Z 0600Z 0900Z 1200Z 00-24 Snow Cover
Soil Moisture 1200Z 1500Z 1800Z 2100Z 0000Z 0300Z 0600Z 0900Z 1200Z 00-24 Soil Moisture
MSLP/500 Thk 1200Z 1500Z 1800Z 2100Z 0000Z 0300Z 0600Z 0900Z 1200Z 00-24 MSLP/500 Thk
SFC T/Winds 1200Z 1500Z 1800Z 2100Z 0000Z 0300Z 0600Z 0900Z 1200Z 00-24 SFC T/Winds
SFC ThetaE 1200Z 1500Z 1800Z 2100Z 0000Z 0300Z 0600Z 0900Z 1200Z 00-24 SFC ThetaE
SFC Mx Ratio 1200Z 1500Z 1800Z 2100Z 0000Z 0300Z 0600Z 0900Z 1200Z 00-24 SFC Mx Ratio
CAPE 1200Z 1500Z 1800Z 2100Z 0000Z 0300Z 0600Z 0900Z 1200Z 00-24 CAPE
CIN 1200Z 1500Z 1800Z 2100Z 0000Z 0300Z 0600Z 0900Z 1200Z 00-24 CIN
LI 1200Z 1500Z 1800Z 2100Z 0000Z 0300Z 0600Z 0900Z 1200Z 00-24 LI
Tornado Index 1200Z 1500Z 1800Z 2100Z 0000Z 0300Z 0600Z 0900Z 1200Z 00-24 Tornado Index
Cloud base HT 1200Z 1500Z 1800Z 2100Z 0000Z 0300Z 0600Z 0900Z 1200Z 00-24 Cloud base HT
Vis Sat View 1200Z 1500Z 1800Z 2100Z 0000Z 0300Z 0600Z 0900Z 1200Z 00-24 Vis Sat View
850 Th/850 V 1200Z 1500Z 1800Z 2100Z 0000Z 0300Z 0600Z 0900Z 1200Z 00-24 850 Th/850 V
925 Cnv/Winds 1200Z 1500Z 1800Z 2100Z 0000Z 0300Z 0600Z 0900Z 1200Z 00-24 925 Cnv/Winds
850 HT/Winds 1200Z 1500Z 1800Z 2100Z 0000Z 0300Z 0600Z 0900Z 1200Z 00-24 850 HT/Winds
850 T/Mx Ratio 1200Z 1500Z 1800Z 2100Z 0000Z 0300Z 0600Z 0900Z 1200Z 00-24 850 T/Mx Ratio
850 RH/W 1200Z 1500Z 1800Z 2100Z 0000Z 0300Z 0600Z 0900Z 1200Z 00-24 850 RH/W
700 RH/W 1200Z 1500Z 1800Z 2100Z 0000Z 0300Z 0600Z 0900Z 1200Z 00-24 700 RH/W
500 HT/Vort 1200Z 1500Z 1800Z 2100Z 0000Z 0300Z 0600Z 0900Z 1200Z 00-24 500 HT/Vort
500 Winds 1200Z 1500Z 1800Z 2100Z 0000Z 0300Z 0600Z 0900Z 1200Z 00-24 500 Winds
300 HT/Vort 1200Z 1500Z 1800Z 2100Z 0000Z 0300Z 0600Z 0900Z 1200Z 00-24 300 HT/Vort
300 Winds 1200Z 1500Z 1800Z 2100Z 0000Z 0300Z 0600Z 0900Z 1200Z 00-24 300 Winds
3 hr Precip 1200Z 1500Z 1800Z 2100Z 0000Z 0300Z 0600Z 0900Z 1200Z 00-24 3 hr Precip
Precip TOTAL 1200Z 1500Z 1800Z 2100Z 0000Z 0300Z 0600Z 0900Z 1200Z 00-24 Precip TOTAL
NON/CON Precip 1200Z 1500Z 1800Z 2100Z 0000Z 0300Z 0600Z 0900Z 1200Z 00-24 NON/CON Precip

MESO MM5 RT Run: Nested Grid Soundings, Init Time= 06 Sep 1998 12 UTC

Location 00 hour
7 am
EST
980906
03 hour
10 am
EST
980906
06 hour
1 pm
EST
980906
09 hour
4 pm
EST
980906
12 hour
7 pm
EST
980906
15 hour
10 pm
EST
980906
18 hour
1 am
EST
980907
21 hour
4 am
EST
980907
24 hour
7 am
EST
980907
4 panelLocation
SYR,NY 1200Z 1500Z 1800Z 2100Z 0000Z 0300Z 0600Z 0900Z 1200Z 00-24 SYR,NY
BUF,NY 1200Z 1500Z 1800Z 2100Z 0000Z 0300Z 0600Z 0900Z 1200Z 00-24 BUF,NY
BTV,VT 1200Z 1500Z 1800Z 2100Z 0000Z 0300Z 0600Z 0900Z 1200Z 00-24 BTV,VT

Grid 2 Animations: Click on the link to load the animation. Then click on your browser's "reload" button to loop.

Animation of Grid 2 MSLP
Animation of Grid 2 Sfc Temperature and Winds
Animation of Grid 2 Theta-e
Animation of Grid 2 CAPE
Animation of Grid 2 CIN
Animation of Grid 2 LI
Animation of Grid 2 Vis Sat View
Animation of Grid 2 3-hrly Precip
Animation of Grid 2 Total Precip
3-D Animation of Grid 2 Clouds
3-D Animation of Clouds and Sfc T
Fly-by of 3-D Cloud Animation!

NCEP 24 hr observed precip at 98090712

Grid 2 Vertical Cross-Sections
Grid 2 Tabular Site Forecasts


Links to observations:
Binghamton NWS info on event
Binghamton study/AMS presentation
Buffalo NWS info on event
Albany NWS info on event