MESO, Inc. MM5 Real Time Syracuse Derecho Forecast
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Coarse Grid Forecast
Nested Grid Forecast
Verification
Point Site Forecasts
Vertical Cross-Sections
Grid configuration: The coarse domain has 93 x 78 points horizontally with a 30 km
grid spacing. The nested domain has 76 x 61 points horizontally, with a 10 km grid spacing.
Both domains have 25 layers in the vertical, with the model top at 75 mb. Both domains
are run for 24 hours. The nested domain land surface characteristics (terrain, land/water,
sea surface temperature, land use, soil moisture, snow cover) are all interpolated directly
to the nested grid scale; as a result the nested grid has features consistent with that scale and
is not just an interpolation from the coarse grid information.
Grid configuration
Gridded topography
Gridded land-use
Gridded sea surface temperatures (SST and Great Lakes temperatures
are updated weekly in model runs from NCEP analyses. Graph shown may not be latest.)
Grid 1 topography
Grid 1 land use
Grid 1 land/water distribution
Grid 2 topography
Grid 2 land use
Grid 2 land/water distribution
Model configuration: NCAR's MM5v2 version 2.9
Simple ice microphysics (coarse and fine grids)
Kain-Fritsch cumulus parameterization (coarse and fine grids)
MRF PBL (coarse and fine grids)
Cloud-scheme radiation (coarse and fine grids)
Radiative top boundary condition (coarse and fine grids)
2-way interactive nesting
Initialization: The model is initialized at 1200 UTC. The 00 hr forecast
from the 12 UTC Early Eta run is used as the first-guess (Eta 211 grid, grid has 80 km data resolution, actual
model run has 32 km resolution). The 1200 UTC rawinsonde and
surface METAR observations are used to enhance the first-guess using NCAR's MM5
RAWINS package with the multi-quadratic analysis scheme.
The Eta (or AVN) forecast fields at 6, 12, 18, 24 hrs are used for the lateral boundary
conditions. The fine grid surface
characteristic fields (terrain, land/water, vegetation, SST) are interpolated
to the fine grid directly from the original data. The fine grid initial
fields are interpolated directly to the fine grid (not from the coarse grid).
Soil moisture and snow cover: The soil moisture availability is updated during the model run, using
the modifications provided by Jim Bresch at NCAR/MMM. The soil moisture
availability (SMA) is initialized for each run using the Eta 12 hr fcst SMA from the previous
Eta run (the previous 12Z run). The snow cover (just yes/no, not snow
depth) is updated during the model run using the IFSNOW option in the model.
The snow cover is initialized from the most recently available NESDIS IMS snow
cover analysis.
Current MESO MM5 runs are initialized at: 06 Sep 1998 12 UTC
NCEP model used for first-guess is ETA from 1200
Tabular site forecasts (Now with point-and-click map, many more locations)
Vertical Cross-Sections
Grid 1 Animations: Click on the link to load the animation. Then click on your
browser's "reload" button to loop.
Animation of Grid 1 MSLP
Animation of Grid 1 Sfc Temperature and Winds
Animation of Grid 1 Theta-e
Animation of Grid 1 Vis Sat View
Animation of Grid 1 3-hrly Precip
Animation of Grid 1 Total Precip
Animation of Grid 1 500 mb Winds
Animation of Grid 1 300 mb Winds
3-D Animation of Grid 1 Clouds
3-D Animation of Clouds and Sfc T
Fly-by of 3-D Cloud Animation!
Grid 1 Vertical Cross-Sections
Grid 1 Tabular Site Forecasts
Grid 2 Animations: Click on the link to load the animation. Then click on your
browser's "reload" button to loop.
Animation of Grid 2 MSLP
Animation of Grid 2 Sfc Temperature and Winds
Animation of Grid 2 Theta-e
Animation of Grid 2 CAPE
Animation of Grid 2 CIN
Animation of Grid 2 LI
Animation of Grid 2 Vis Sat View
Animation of Grid 2 3-hrly Precip
Animation of Grid 2 Total Precip
3-D Animation of Grid 2 Clouds
3-D Animation of Clouds and Sfc T
Fly-by of 3-D Cloud Animation!
NCEP 24 hr observed precip at 98090712
Grid 2 Vertical Cross-Sections
Grid 2 Tabular Site Forecasts
Links to observations:
Binghamton NWS info on event
Binghamton study/AMS presentation
Buffalo NWS info on event
Albany NWS info on event