MESO, Inc. MM5 Real Time Forecast for Dec 17 1998

Quickly go to: Coarse Grid Forecast
Nested Grid Forecast
Verification
Point Site Forecasts
Vertical Cross-Sections

Grid configuration: The coarse domain has 93 x 78 points horizontally with a 45 km grid spacing. The nested domain has 76 x 61 points horizontally, with a 15 km grid spacing. Both domains have 25 layers in the vertical, with the model top at 75 mb. Both domains are run for 36 hours. The nested domain land surface characteristics (terrain, land/water, sea surface temperature, land use, soil moisture, snow cover) are all interpolated directly to the nested grid scale; as a result the nested grid has features consistent with that scale and is not just an interpolation from the coarse grid information. The coarse grid timestep is 135 secs, and the fine grid timestep is 45 secs.

Grid configuration
Gridded topography
Gridded land-use
Gridded sea surface temperatures (SST and Great Lakes temperatures are updated weekly in model runs from NCEP analyses. Graph shown may not be latest.)


Grid 1 topography
Grid 1 land use
Grid 1 land/water distribution
Grid 2 topography
Grid 2 land use
Grid 2 land/water distribution


Model configuration: NCAR's MM5v2 version 2.9
Simple ice microphysics (coarse and fine grids)
Kain-Fritsch cumulus parameterization (coarse and fine grids)
MRF PBL (coarse and fine grids)
Cloud-scheme radiation (coarse and fine grids)
Radiative top boundary condition (coarse and fine grids)
2-way interactive nesting

Initialization: The model is initialized at 0000 UTC. The 00 hr forecast from the 00 UTC Early Eta run is used as the first-guess. If that is not available by a set time, then the 12 hour forecast from the previous 1200 UTC Early Eta run (Eta 211 grid, grid has 80 km data resolution, actual model run has 32 km resolution) is used as the first-guess. If the Eta run is unavailable, the previous AVN run is used as the first-guess. The 0000 UTC rawinsonde and surface METAR observations are used to enhance the first-guess using NCAR's MM5 RAWINS package with the multi-quadratic analysis scheme. The Eta (or AVN) forecast fields at 06, 12, 18, 24, 30, and 36 hrs are used for the lateral boundary conditions. The fine grid surface characteristic fields (terrain, land/water, vegetation, SST) are interpolated to the fine grid directly from the original data. The fine grid initial fields are interpolated directly to the fine grid (not from the coarse grid).

Soil moisture and snow cover: The soil moisture availability is updated during the model run, using the modifications provided by Jim Bresch at NCAR/MMM. The soil moisture availability (SMA) is initialized for each run using the Eta 12 hr fcst SMA from the previous Eta run (the previous 12Z run). The snow cover (just yes/no, not snow depth) is updated during the model run using the IFSNOW option in the model. The snow cover is initialized from the most recently available NESDIS IMS snow cover analysis.

Current MESO MM5 runs are initialized at: 17 Dec 1998 00 UTC
NCEP model used for first-guess is ETA from 98121700


Tabular site forecasts (Now with point-and-click map, many more locations)
Vertical Cross-Sections

MESO MM5 RT Run: Coarse Grid, Initial time= 17 Dec 1998 00 UTC

Field 00 hour
7 pm
EST
981216
03 hour
10 pm
EST
981216
06 hour
1 am
EST
981217
09 hour
4 am
EST
981217
12 hour
7 am
EST
981217
15 hour
10 am
EST
981217
18 hour
1 pm
EST
981217
21 hour
4 pm
EST
981217
24 hour
7 pm
EST
981217
27 hour
10 pm
EST
981217
30 hour
1 am
EST
981218
33 hour
4 am
EST
981218
36 hour
7 am
EST
981218
4 panelField
Snow cover 0000Z 0300Z 0600Z 0900Z 1200Z 1500Z 1800Z 2100Z 0000Z 0300Z 0600Z 0900Z 1200Z 00-36 Snow cover
Soil Moisture 0000Z 0300Z 0600Z 0900Z 1200Z 1500Z 1800Z 2100Z 0000Z 0300Z 0600Z 0900Z 1200Z 00-36 Soil Moisture
MSLP/500 Thk 0000Z 0300Z 0600Z 0900Z 1200Z 1500Z 1800Z 2100Z 0000Z 0300Z 0600Z 0900Z 1200Z 00-36 MSLP/500 Thk
SFC T/Winds 0000Z 0300Z 0600Z 0900Z 1200Z 1500Z 1800Z 2100Z 0000Z 0300Z 0600Z 0900Z 1200Z 00-36 SFC T/Winds
SFC ThetaE 0000Z 0300Z 0600Z 0900Z 1200Z 1500Z 1800Z 2100Z 0000Z 0300Z 0600Z 0900Z 1200Z 00-36 SFC ThetaE
SFC Mx Ratio 0000Z 0300Z 0600Z 0900Z 1200Z 1500Z 1800Z 2100Z 0000Z 0300Z 0600Z 0900Z 1200Z 00-36 SFC Mx Ratio
CAPE 0000Z 0300Z 0600Z 0900Z 1200Z 1500Z 1800Z 2100Z 0000Z 0300Z 0600Z 0900Z 1200Z 00-36 CAPE
CIN 0000Z 0300Z 0600Z 0900Z 1200Z 1500Z 1800Z 2100Z 0000Z 0300Z 0600Z 0900Z 1200Z 00-36 CIN
LI 0000Z 0300Z 0600Z 0900Z 1200Z 1500Z 1800Z 2100Z 0000Z 0300Z 0600Z 0900Z 1200Z 00-36 LI
Tornado Index 0000Z 0300Z 0600Z 0900Z 1200Z 1500Z 1800Z 2100Z 0000Z 0300Z 0600Z 0900Z 1200Z 00-36 Tornado Index
Cloud base HT 0000Z 0300Z 0600Z 0900Z 1200Z 1500Z 1800Z 2100Z 0000Z 0300Z 0600Z 0900Z 1200Z 00-36 Cloud base HT
Vis Sat View 0000Z 0300Z 0600Z 0900Z 1200Z 1500Z 1800Z 2100Z 0000Z 0300Z 0600Z 0900Z 1200Z 00-36 Vis Sat View
500 Thk/3-h Prc 0000Z 0300Z 0600Z 0900Z 1200Z 1500Z 1800Z 2100Z 0000Z 0300Z 0600Z 0900Z 1200Z 00-36 500 Thk/3-h Prc
850 HT/Wind 0000Z 0300Z 0600Z 0900Z 1200Z 1500Z 1800Z 2100Z 0000Z 0300Z 0600Z 0900Z 1200Z 00-36 850 HT/Wind
850 T/Mx Ratio 0000Z 0300Z 0600Z 0900Z 1200Z 1500Z 1800Z 2100Z 0000Z 0300Z 0600Z 0900Z 1200Z 00-36 850 T/Mx Ratio
850 RH/W 0000Z 0300Z 0600Z 0900Z 1200Z 1500Z 1800Z 2100Z 0000Z 0300Z 0600Z 0900Z 1200Z 00-36 850 RH/W
700 RH/W 0000Z 0300Z 0600Z 0900Z 1200Z 1500Z 1800Z 2100Z 0000Z 0300Z 0600Z 0900Z 1200Z 00-36 700 RH/W
500 HT/Vort 0000Z 0300Z 0600Z 0900Z 1200Z 1500Z 1800Z 2100Z 0000Z 0300Z 0600Z 0900Z 1200Z 00-36 500 HT/Vort
500 Winds 0000Z 0300Z 0600Z 0900Z 1200Z 1500Z 1800Z 2100Z 0000Z 0300Z 0600Z 0900Z 1200Z 00-36 500 Winds
300 HT/Vort 0000Z 0300Z 0600Z 0900Z 1200Z 1500Z 1800Z 2100Z 0000Z 0300Z 0600Z 0900Z 1200Z 00-36 300 HT/Vort
300 Winds 0000Z 0300Z 0600Z 0900Z 1200Z 1500Z 1800Z 2100Z 0000Z 0300Z 0600Z 0900Z 1200Z 00-36 300 Winds
3 hr Precip 0000Z 0300Z 0600Z 0900Z 1200Z 1500Z 1800Z 2100Z 0000Z 0300Z 0600Z 0900Z 1200Z 00-36 3 hr Precip
Precip TOTAL 0000Z 0300Z 0600Z 0900Z 1200Z 1500Z 1800Z 2100Z 0000Z 0300Z 0600Z 0900Z 1200Z 00-36 Precip TOTAL
NON/CON Precip 0000Z 0300Z 0600Z 0900Z 1200Z 1500Z 1800Z 2100Z 0000Z 0300Z 0600Z 0900Z 1200Z 00-36 NON/CON Precip
4 panel SFC 0000Z 0300Z 0600Z 0900Z 1200Z 1500Z 1800Z 2100Z 0000Z 0300Z 0600Z 0900Z 1200Z 4 panel SFC
4 panel HTS 0000Z 0300Z 0600Z 0900Z 1200Z 1500Z 1800Z 2100Z 0000Z 0300Z 0600Z 0900Z 1200Z 4 panel HTS
4 panel CONV 0000Z 0300Z 0600Z 0900Z 1200Z 1500Z 1800Z 2100Z 0000Z 0300Z 0600Z 0900Z 1200Z 4 panel CONV

MESO MM5 RT Grid 1 Soundings, Initial time= 17 Dec 1998 00 UTC

Location 00 hour
7 pm
EST
981216
03 hour
10 pm
EST
981216
06 hour
1 am
EST
981217
09 hour
4 am
EST
981217
12 hour
7 am
EST
981217
15 hour
10 am
EST
981217
18 hour
1 pm
EST
981217
21 hour
4 pm
EST
981217
24 hour
7 pm
EST
981217
27 hour
10 pm
EST
981217
30 hour
1 am
EST
981218
33 hour
4 am
EST
981218
36 hour
7 am
EST
981218
4 panelLocation
Tulsa, OK 0000Z 0300Z 0600Z 0900Z 1200Z 1500Z 1800Z 2100Z 0000Z 0300Z 0600Z 0900Z 1200Z 00-36 Tulsa, OK
Springfield, MO 0000Z 0300Z 0600Z 0900Z 1200Z 1500Z 1800Z 2100Z 0000Z 0300Z 0600Z 0900Z 1200Z 00-36 Springfield, MO
Columbia, MO 0000Z 0300Z 0600Z 0900Z 1200Z 1500Z 1800Z 2100Z 0000Z 0300Z 0600Z 0900Z 1200Z 00-36 Columbia, MO

Grid 1 Animations: Click on the link to load the animation. The animation will loop until you click on your browser's "stop".

Animation of Grid 1 MSLP
Animation of Grid 1 Sfc Temperature and Winds
Animation of Grid 1 Theta-e
Animation of Grid 1 Vis Sat View
Animation of Grid 1 3-hrly Precip
Animation of Grid 1 Total Precip
3-D Animation of Grid 1 Clouds
3-D Animation of Clouds and Sfc T
Fly-by of 3-D Cloud Animation!

Grid 1 Vertical Cross-Sections


MESO MM5 RT Run: Nested Grid, Init Time= 17 Dec 1998 00 UTC

Field 00 hour
7 pm
EST
981216
03 hour
10 pm
EST
981216
06 hour
1 am
EST
981217
09 hour
4 am
EST
981217
12 hour
7 am
EST
981217
15 hour
10 am
EST
981217
18 hour
1 pm
EST
981217
21 hour
4 pm
EST
981217
24 hour
7 pm
EST
981217
27 hour
10 pm
EST
981217
30 hour
1 am
EST
981218
33 hour
4 am
EST
981218
36 hour
7 am
EST
981218
4 panelField
Snow Cover 0000Z 0300Z 0600Z 0900Z 1200Z 1500Z 1800Z 2100Z 0000Z 0300Z 0600Z 0900Z 1200Z 00-36 Snow Cover
Soil Moisture 0000Z 0300Z 0600Z 0900Z 1200Z 1500Z 1800Z 2100Z 0000Z 0300Z 0600Z 0900Z 1200Z 00-36 Soil Moisture
MSLP/500 Thk 0000Z 0300Z 0600Z 0900Z 1200Z 1500Z 1800Z 2100Z 0000Z 0300Z 0600Z 0900Z 1200Z 00-36 MSLP/500 Thk
SFC T/Winds 0000Z 0300Z 0600Z 0900Z 1200Z 1500Z 1800Z 2100Z 0000Z 0300Z 0600Z 0900Z 1200Z 00-36 SFC T/Winds
SFC ThetaE 0000Z 0300Z 0600Z 0900Z 1200Z 1500Z 1800Z 2100Z 0000Z 0300Z 0600Z 0900Z 1200Z 00-36 SFC ThetaE
SFC Mx Ratio 0000Z 0300Z 0600Z 0900Z 1200Z 1500Z 1800Z 2100Z 0000Z 0300Z 0600Z 0900Z 1200Z 00-36 SFC Mx Ratio
CAPE 0000Z 0300Z 0600Z 0900Z 1200Z 1500Z 1800Z 2100Z 0000Z 0300Z 0600Z 0900Z 1200Z 00-36 CAPE
CIN 0000Z 0300Z 0600Z 0900Z 1200Z 1500Z 1800Z 2100Z 0000Z 0300Z 0600Z 0900Z 1200Z 00-36 CIN
Cloud base HT 0000Z 0300Z 0600Z 0900Z 1200Z 1500Z 1800Z 2100Z 0000Z 0300Z 0600Z 0900Z 1200Z 00-36 Cloud base HT
Vis Sat View 0000Z 0300Z 0600Z 0900Z 1200Z 1500Z 1800Z 2100Z 0000Z 0300Z 0600Z 0900Z 1200Z 00-36 Vis Sat View
850 Th/850 V 0000Z 0300Z 0600Z 0900Z 1200Z 1500Z 1800Z 2100Z 0000Z 0300Z 0600Z 0900Z 1200Z 00-36 850 Th/850 V
925 Cnv/Winds 0000Z 0300Z 0600Z 0900Z 1200Z 1500Z 1800Z 2100Z 0000Z 0300Z 0600Z 0900Z 1200Z 00-36 925 Cnv/Winds
850 HT/Winds 0000Z 0300Z 0600Z 0900Z 1200Z 1500Z 1800Z 2100Z 0000Z 0300Z 0600Z 0900Z 1200Z 00-36 850 HT/Winds
850 T/Mx Ratio 0000Z 0300Z 0600Z 0900Z 1200Z 1500Z 1800Z 2100Z 0000Z 0300Z 0600Z 0900Z 1200Z 00-36 850 T/Mx Ratio
850 RH/W 0000Z 0300Z 0600Z 0900Z 1200Z 1500Z 1800Z 2100Z 0000Z 0300Z 0600Z 0900Z 1200Z 00-36 850 RH/W
700 RH/W 0000Z 0300Z 0600Z 0900Z 1200Z 1500Z 1800Z 2100Z 0000Z 0300Z 0600Z 0900Z 1200Z 00-36 700 RH/W
500 HT/Vort 0000Z 0300Z 0600Z 0900Z 1200Z 1500Z 1800Z 2100Z 0000Z 0300Z 0600Z 0900Z 1200Z 00-36 500 HT/Vort
500 Winds 0000Z 0300Z 0600Z 0900Z 1200Z 1500Z 1800Z 2100Z 0000Z 0300Z 0600Z 0900Z 1200Z 00-36 500 Winds
300 HT/Vort 0000Z 0300Z 0600Z 0900Z 1200Z 1500Z 1800Z 2100Z 0000Z 0300Z 0600Z 0900Z 1200Z 00-36 300 HT/Vort
300 Winds 0000Z 0300Z 0600Z 0900Z 1200Z 1500Z 1800Z 2100Z 0000Z 0300Z 0600Z 0900Z 1200Z 00-36 300 Winds
3 hr Precip 0000Z 0300Z 0600Z 0900Z 1200Z 1500Z 1800Z 2100Z 0000Z 0300Z 0600Z 0900Z 1200Z 00-36 3 hr Precip
3hr Pre/Radar 0000Z 0300Z 0600Z 0900Z 1200Z 1500Z 1800Z 2100Z 0000Z 0300Z 0600Z 0900Z 1200Z 3hr Pre/Radar
Precip TOTAL 0000Z 0300Z 0600Z 0900Z 1200Z 1500Z 1800Z 2100Z 0000Z 0300Z 0600Z 0900Z 1200Z 00-36 Precip TOTAL
NON/CON Precip 0000Z 0300Z 0600Z 0900Z 1200Z 1500Z 1800Z 2100Z 0000Z 0300Z 0600Z 0900Z 1200Z 00-36 NON/CON Precip
4 panel SFC 0000Z 0300Z 0600Z 0900Z 1200Z 1500Z 1800Z 2100Z 0000Z 0300Z 0600Z 0900Z 1200Z 4 panel SFC
4 panel HTS 0000Z 0300Z 0600Z 0900Z 1200Z 1500Z 1800Z 2100Z 0000Z 0300Z 0600Z 0900Z 1200Z 4 panel HTS
4 panel CONV 0000Z 0300Z 0600Z 0900Z 1200Z 1500Z 1800Z 2100Z 0000Z 0300Z 0600Z 0900Z 1200Z 4 panel CONV

MESO MM5 RT Run: Nested Grid Soundings, Init Time= 17 Dec 1998 00 UTC

Location 00 hour
7 pm
EST
981216
03 hour
10 pm
EST
981216
06 hour
1 am
EST
981217
09 hour
4 am
EST
981217
12 hour
7 am
EST
981217
15 hour
10 am
EST
981217
18 hour
1 pm
EST
981217
21 hour
4 pm
EST
981217
24 hour
7 pm
EST
981217
27 hour
10 pm
EST
981217
30 hour
1 am
EST
981218
33 hour
4 am
EST
981218
36 hour
7 am
EST
981218
4 panelLocation
SYR,NY 0000Z 0300Z 0600Z 0900Z 1200Z 1500Z 1800Z 2100Z 0000Z 0300Z 0600Z 0900Z 1200Z 00-36 SYR,NY
BUF,NY 0000Z 0300Z 0600Z 0900Z 1200Z 1500Z 1800Z 2100Z 0000Z 0300Z 0600Z 0900Z 1200Z 00-36 BUF,NY
BTV,VT 0000Z 0300Z 0600Z 0900Z 1200Z 1500Z 1800Z 2100Z 0000Z 0300Z 0600Z 0900Z 1200Z 00-36 BTV,VT

Grid 2 Animations: Click on the link to load the animation. The animation will loop until you click on your browser's "stop".

Animation of Grid 2 MSLP
Animation of Grid 2 Sfc Temperature and Winds
Animation of Grid 2 Theta-e
Animation of Grid 2 Vis Sat View
Animation of Grid 2 3-hrly Precip
Animation of Grid 2 Total Precip
Animation of Observed Radar Images, 24h, 12/17/12Z-12/18/12Z
Animation of Observed Radar Images, 12h, 12/18/00Z-12/18/12Z
Combined Animation of Forecast 3-hrly Precip and Observed Radar Images
3-D Animation of Grid 2 Clouds
3-D Animation of Clouds and Sfc T
Fly-by of 3-D Cloud Animation!

Grid 2 Vertical Cross-Sections